2026 season · Nightly update Oct 29, 2026, 3:05 AM ET completed with warnings

Matchup

344 teams · Matrix written Oct 29, 2026, 3:28 AM ET from matches through Oct 28, 2026 · neutral court

Probability that the row team beats the column team in a best-of-five match on a neutral court, from the published fit: each team’s adjusted sideout rates give an expected share of rallies, and a race-to-25, win-by-two recursion turns that share into set and match probabilities. The table covers the top 25 by AdjNet; the picker below covers every rated team.

Any two teams

Team ATeam B

Top 25

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
1 Nebraska		70	72	86	87	86	89	90	94	93	90	93	90	94	97	95	96	96	95	96	98	97	98	97	95
2 Pittsburgh	30		53	72	73	71	76	78	83	83	78	84	79	85	90	87	88	89	86	90	92	91	94	92	87
3 Louisville	28	47		69	71	69	74	76	82	82	76	82	77	83	89	86	87	88	85	88	92	90	93	91	86
4 Florida	14	28	31		52	51	56	59	65	66	60	66	61	69	76	72	73	75	72	76	81	79	83	79	73
5 Kentucky	13	27	29	48		49	54	57	64	64	58	65	60	67	75	70	72	73	70	74	79	77	82	78	71
6 BYU	14	29	31	49	51		55	57	64	64	58	65	60	67	75	70	72	73	70	74	79	77	81	78	71
7 Kansas	11	24	26	44	46	46		53	60	60	54	61	56	63	71	66	68	70	66	71	76	74	79	75	68
8 Tennessee	10	22	24	41	43	42	47		56	57	51	58	53	60	68	63	65	67	64	68	73	71	76	72	65
9 Minnesota	6	17	18	35	36	36	40	44		51	45	52	47	54	63	58	60	61	58	62	68	66	71	67	60
10 Arizona State	7	17	18	34	36	36	40	43	49		45	51	47	54	62	57	59	61	57	62	68	66	70	66	59
11 Wisconsin	10	22	24	40	42	42	46	49	55	55		56	52	58	66	62	63	65	62	66	71	69	74	70	63
12 Penn State	7	16	18	34	35	35	39	42	48	49	44		46	52	60	56	57	59	56	60	66	64	69	65	58
13 SMU	10	21	23	39	40	40	44	47	53	53	48	54		57	64	60	61	63	60	64	69	68	72	68	61
14 Texas	6	15	17	31	33	33	37	40	46	46	42	48	43		58	53	55	57	54	58	64	62	66	62	56
15 Michigan State	3	10	11	24	25	25	29	32	37	38	34	40	36	42		46	47	49	46	50	57	55	60	55	49
16 Vanderbilt	5	13	14	28	30	30	34	37	42	43	38	44	40	47	54		52	54	51	55	60	58	63	59	53
17 Texas A&M	4	12	13	27	28	28	32	35	40	41	37	42	39	45	53	48		52	49	53	59	57	62	58	51
18 Illinois	4	11	12	25	27	27	30	33	39	39	35	41	37	43	51	46	48		47	51	57	55	60	56	49
19 Purdue	5	14	15	28	30	30	34	36	42	42	38	44	40	46	54	49	51	53		54	60	58	62	58	52
20 Oregon	4	10	12	24	26	26	29	32	38	38	34	40	36	42	50	45	47	49	46		56	54	59	55	48
21 San Diego	2	8	8	19	21	21	24	27	32	32	29	34	31	36	43	40	41	43	40	44		48	53	49	43
22 Washington	3	9	10	21	23	23	26	29	34	34	31	36	32	38	45	42	43	45	42	46	52		55	51	45
23 Colorado State	2	6	7	17	18	19	21	24	29	30	26	31	28	34	40	37	38	40	38	41	47	45		46	40
24 North Carolina	3	8	9	21	22	22	25	28	33	34	30	35	32	38	45	41	42	44	42	45	51	49	54		44
25 Baylor	5	13	14	27	29	29	32	35	40	41	37	42	39	44	51	47	49	51	48	52	57	55	60	56

Cells are percentages for the row team. Column numbers are AdjNet ranks. Full 344×344 matrix: matchups CSV.